It is estimated at about -0.2, which means that a ten percent increase in incarceration results in about a two percent reduction in crime.
That is from p.113 of the new (and excellent) Mark Kleiman book When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment.
On p.114 we learn that the elasticity of crime with respect to policing is somewhere between -0.3 and -1.0, depending on the estimate you favor.
Does this have policy implications?
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